Higher China Gross sales and Manufacturing Commentary- December 2022


06 January 2023
Gao Tao
Lin Huaibin

Higher China gross sales

November 2022: -11.5%; 2.11 million models vs. 2.38
million models

YTD 2022: +2.7%; 22.32 million models vs. 21.74 million

  • In November 2022, 2.11 million gentle automobiles had been bought in
    Higher China, marking an 11.5% lower in contrast with the identical
    month of 2021. Particularly, gentle automobile gross sales in mainland China
    decreased 11.8% from 2.34 million models in November 2021 to 2.06
    million models. Passenger automobiles recorded gross sales of 1.83 million
    models, a 9.0% lower yr on yr (y/y), and light-weight business
    automobile (LCV) gross sales contracted 28.9% y/y to 0.23 million
  • On a year-to-date (YTD) foundation, gentle automobile gross sales in mainland
    China elevated 2.8% from 21.31 million models to 21.91 million
    models. Exactly, passenger automobile gross sales elevated 7.6% y/y to
    19.32 million models, whereas LCV gross sales decreased 22.9% y/y to 2.6
    million models. Section-wise, YTD sedan gross sales elevated 11.1% y/y
    from 8.84 million models to 9.83 million models, and the game
    utility automobile (SUV) section elevated 4.7% y/y from 8.43 million
    models to eight.82 million models. YTD gross sales of multipurpose automobiles
    (MPVs) decreased 1.5% y/y to 0.68 million models.
  • Chinese language auto gross sales in November had been severely hindered by
    COVID-19 restrictions in China. The extended pandemic has slowed
    the nation’s financial development, with its GDP forecast to develop 2.8%
    in full-year 2022, a lot decrease than the goal set originally
    of the yr of 5.5%. Ranging from the start of December, a
    raft of cities has begun to ease COVID-19 pandemic-related
    restrictions, after the central authorities urged native authorities
    to optimize pandemic-containment measures, together with lifting
    lockdowns, lowering the frequency of mass testing, and permitting
    house quarantine for shut contacts. The stress-free of containment
    insurance policies has set the stage for a broader financial restoration from
    COVID-19 disruptions, though it should take time for shopper
    confidence to climb.
  • In November, gross sales of inside combustion engine (ICE) automobiles
    within the broader passenger automobile market contracted by 30% y/y, with
    shoppers turning to new-energy automobiles (NEVs). The sturdy development
    in NEV demand is helped by authorities incentives, together with
    subsidies and buy tax exemption. Passenger automobile gross sales in
    December could also be helped by incentives offered by automakers in an
    try to clear inventories and increase year-end gross sales. The top of
    central authorities electrical automobile (EV) subsidies by the tip of
    2022 will even assist to persuade clients to make their purchases
    throughout the yr. Within the fourth quarter, automobile gross sales might be
    constrained by the resurgence of COVID-19 infections within the
    nation. Automakers are attempting to counter downward pressures within the
    home market with a renewed push for exports. Within the yr to
    date, NEV exports doubled y/y to just about 600,000 models, and
    new-vehicle exports elevated 55% y/y to 2.785 million models. In
    addition, the NEV buy tax exemption might be prolonged into
    2023, whereas cities reminiscent of Shanghai will doubtless withdraw a few of
    their preferential insurance policies on plug-in hybrid electrical automobiles
    (PHEVs) from 2023 to shift their focus to battery-electric automobiles
    (BEVs). We count on NEV penetration to edge near 26% in 2022,
    supported by sturdy merchandise.
  • With sturdy year-end stimulations and marked easing of COVID-19
    associated restrictions, gentle automobiles gross sales ought to develop by 3.6% to
    24.76 million models in 2022, of which passenger automobiles are
    estimated to extend 7.7% y/y to 21.75 million models, whereas LCVs
    are forecast to say no 18.8% to three.01 million models.

Higher China manufacturing

November 2022: -15.3%; 2.16 million models vs. 2.55
million models

YTD 2022: +8.6%; 23.85 million models vs. 21.97 million

  • Higher China’s gentle automobile manufacturing in November recorded
    2.16 million models for a decline of 15.3% yr on yr (y/y). In
    mainland China, gentle automobile manufacturing decreased 15.5% y/y to
    2.13 million models. The unfold of COVID-19 in main trade cities
    led to gentle automobile manufacturing shedding momentum in mainland China
    in November after October’s golden buying season. Changan was
    hit within the first wave as all manufacturing services in Chongqing
    had been shut down for 10 days in November. FAW-VW’s plant in Chengdu
    was additionally shut down briefly on the finish of November owing to
    native COVID-19 instances. Even manufacturing traces in Changchun vegetation
    had been closed owing to produce shortages. These provide chain
    interruptions led to Honda’s vegetation in Wuhan shutting down for one
    week and can even have an effect on world output from Japan.
  • The sunshine automobile manufacturing forecast for Higher China for
    full-year 2022 is ready at 26.33 million models, marking a 6% y/y
    enhance. In mainland China, gentle automobile manufacturing might be 26.08
    million models for a 6.1% y/y enhance. Closely broken by the
    November lockdown and potential provide interruption in December, we
    lowered the 2022 mainland China gentle automobile manufacturing by 350,000
    models in contrast with the November forecast, main to six.1% y/y
    development within the December forecast (1.5% decrease than the November
  • The newest automobile stock alert (VIA) index, issued by the
    China Vehicle Sellers Affiliation (CADA), stood at
    65.3%—with a rise of 6.3% month on month (m/m) and 9.9%
    increased than in the identical interval of 2021—above the edge. In
    November, the epidemic continued to develop, and the auto market
    gross sales efficiency fell wanting expectations. Auto exhibits and
    advertising actions across the nation couldn’t be carried out
    easily owing to restrictions to assist management the pandemic, and
    the auto market was comparatively quiet. The discharge of pent-up
    shopper demand for vehicles was hindered by the closures of many
  • In November, manufacturing of passenger automobiles in Higher China
    decreased 10.9% y/y to 1.94 million models. Market segment-wise, automobile
    manufacturing stood at 0.9 million models with a 13.2% y/y lower.
    Manufacturing of multipurpose automobiles (MPVs) elevated 12.2% y/y to
    70,219 models. Manufacturing of sport utility automobiles (SUVs) decreased
    9.9% y/y to 0.97 million models. Plant closures as a result of COVID-19
    instances led to Changan struggling a forty five% manufacturing lack of 400,000
    models in November. FAW-VW may construct solely 110,000 models, falling
    30% in November. Quite the opposite, motivated by an expiring subsidy,
    the new-energy automobile (NEV) market maintained momentum in
    November. Tesla achieved gross sales of over 100,000 models, contributed
    by home demand for the Mannequin Y and exportation of the Mannequin 3.
    Due to a dependable in-house provide chain, BYD continued to
    dominate the passenger automobile market with trade output of over 2
    million models—127% y/y development in November. The Dynasty sequence
    contributed a serious share because the Han and Music plus surged up by
    145% and 125% y/y, respectively.
  • In November, gentle business automobile manufacturing in Higher
    China posted 0.22 million models, falling 41.6% y/y. Market
    segment-wise, manufacturing of chassis-cabs stood at 0.11 million
    models, down 47.5% y/y. Manufacturing of vans stood at 78,565 models
    with a 32.2% y/y lower. Pickups decreased 38.9% y/y to twenty-eight,203
    models. Full-year manufacturing ought to attain 2.96 million models for a
    23.9% y/y lower.

This text was printed by S&P World Mobility and never by S&P World Rankings, which is a individually managed division of S&P World.


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